My predictions on the future of online poker

First off, sorry for the lack of updates recently. I just got back to Berlin this morning after a good two weeks in the States. I didn't make it out to any other casinos, mainly due to the fact that I spent my time with friends and family, which is something I will never regret.

Anyway, I have been sitting back and soaking up the information as I watched things unfold lately, so on to my predictions. Recently, there have been some BIG changes going on in the online poker world, after George Bush signed the Safe Ports Act on October 13th. I am assuming you know what was in the Safe Ports Act regarding US banks. Sites such as PartyPoker, Pacific Poker, the Bossmedia network, the OnGame network, and many more announced that they were abandoning the US market in order to comply with the new legislation. Most all of the sites will continue to operate, just not allow any Americans to place bets on their platform. Though this obviously is a huge blow to the poker market, I think it also may be a blessing in disguise for some players.

For example, let's take the OnGame network (name currently being changed to bwin Games). A short while back, bwin purchased the whole network and eventually transferred all of their players onto the network as well. For those of you who are unfamiliar with the quality of the bwin players, let me tell you that they are very loose and very stupid with their money. I know this because I spent many months feeding off of them on the Bossmedia network. Many of them are casino players or sports bettors who have literally no idea what poker is all about.

Now that OnGame is discontinuing it's services to US players, the bwin players are being furtherly isolated, making it easier for people like you and me to "search and destroy." One month ago an average table would have maybe 4 Americans, 3 bwin players, and a couple others. Now that number should look more like 5-7 bwin players and then the others. So while there may not be as many games being played, the general quality of the games should drop, due to the higher concentration of fish at each particular table.

For PartyPoker, things are a little more tricky, but their decision may just turn GOLDEN in a few years time. The main reason why they exited the US market was because they are a publicly traded company on the London Stock Exchange (the same applies for Pacific Poker and Cryptologic). As a publicly traded company, they must oblige to any international laws and not break any of them intentionally. Pokerstars, for example, is still a private company, which allowed them to go against the law and stay in the market (for the time being). The big question is, what will happen 2-3 years from now? PartyPoker is already and will be continuing to push for legalization and regulation from the US government, as you can see on their PartyPartners website:

Many people think that legalization is just a matter of time, perhaps only a couple years away, and then who do you think the US will open it's doors to? PartyPoker who immediately stopped accepting US wagers, or PokerStars and Full Tilt who went against the law and gobbled up massive profits? I think that PartyPoker will potentially lobby it up in Washinton, having the gold mine at the end of the rainbow in sight the whole time.

As for the immediate future, look for:
a) acquisition of smaller sites by larger sites
b) privatisation of sites via "purchase" (i.e. Ultimate Bet / Blast Off Ltd.)
c) skins on non US platforms to change to US-friendly networks (Full Contact Poker is planning this ASAP)
d) a new generation of e-wallets to gain momentum (Click2Pay and myCitadel come to mind) as e-wallets like Firepay close it's doors to gambling sites. NETeller is still hanging in there, but many people are skeptical as to what will happen after the 270-day grace period.

A lot of this is just speculation, so interpret this information however you please. All I know is that there is plenty of money to be made whether Americans are playing or not!